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Towards a news set of leading indicators

Titulo Towards a news set of leading indicators
Resumen Economic activity in less developed countries is subject to shocks (internal or external) that frequently end in crises. In most of the cases, the economic authorities implement emergency policies that lead to a deepening of the problem, to a decline in economic activity or to volatility in the production.
Descripción

Economic activity in less developed countries is subject to shocks (internal or external) that frequently end in crises. In most of the cases, the economic authorities implement emergency policies that lead to a deepening of the problem, to a decline in economic activity or to volatility in the production. From this issue arises the question about the probability of predicting this type of crisis and which variables could signal with enough anticipation the developing of these crises. This document presents a brief overview of Argentina's crisis and evaluates some of the leading indicators systems for our country, showing that most of them failed to send crisis signals with enough anticipation. Finally, it proposes some new indicators that could have signalled the 2001-2002 crises.

Autores Federico Marongiu
Area Área de Desarrollo Económico
Programa Política Fiscal
Año 2007

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